WHY MUDAVADI IS NOW A FRUSTRATED MAN

When he quit ODM a few months ago, deputy prime minister Musalia Mudavadi was a man who apparently must have harbored high hopes. With both Uhuru Kenyatta and Wiliam Ruto then staring at the stark possibility of being barred from the race to State House, Mudavadi’s bet was certainly that he was the best candidate to steals the thunder from Prime Minister Raila Odinga. However, things seem to have changed so fast within such a short span of time. Justus Kizito, MP Shinyalu who is close ally of the Deputy Prime Minister never minces hiss words. He reveals, “We are aware of the tricks being employed and so is our leader (Mudavadi) let the so called powerful individual behind UDF know that we are not short of political ideas to advance our course.”

His sentiments are perhaps echoed by ODM nominated councilor Joseph Bukachi who is now allied to Mudavadi’s UDF party who says Uhuru insistence to contest for the presidency puts Mudavadi at crossroads and could render the Sabatia MP’s quest a mere pipe dream. “When Mudavadi left ODM he was sure that he would get the support of Uhuru among other leaders in his ambition to lead the country. But with the latest developments it would appear that  he was duped to leave his former party for the support that would never be,” says councilor.

Another reliable source confided to the Pilipili weekly that Uhuru who is The National Alliance (TNA) party leader is determined to be on the ballot paper come what may. It is this obstinate ground that has crippled the formula for “a formidable force” to face off with a ODM’s Raila Odinga.

“Uhuru believes that he is at the better position to succeed President Kibaki as he retires after the constitutional bound of ten years at the helm. Though he has a serious case of crimes against humanity at the ICC, his reasoning is that he will have higher bargaining if elected,” say the source who did not want his identity revealed. Mudavadi was widely viewed as the alternative candidate especially to central Kenya after Uhuru was charged by the ICC. Ruto who us equally facing the ICC has ambitions for the presidency. He has been steadfast moving across the country drumming up support for the URP party.

Political analyst Kipkoech Murkomen says the URP leader is strategizing his party for majority seats in the National Assembly as well as the Senate. He says if he achieves this feat, it will give him a super bargain in the two tiers of parliament especially when vetting cabinet and public appointments, passing constitutional bills and government business as well as impeaching the president.

Whereas Uhuru and Mudavadi are said to be currently engaged in negotiations that the two hope will inform the baseline of a pre-election coalition agreement which among other things will seek to identify who amongst the due will be the presidential torchbearer to lead the grouping into the next election, suspicion thrives between the two.

According to sources the tools of the MOU though yet to be finalized will be executed once  the two camps agree on a common formula going forward.

The MOU which was to be signed this month, has been fraught with a fare share of supremacy power plays within the two camps, with each side claiming a stake for leadership and by extension, a ticket to the next elections. However despite the ups and downs, the latest indications show that the two camps are now prepared to sign a coalition agreement next month that will spell out clear mechanism on who will be the torch bearer in the next year’s elections. The political Parties Act has room for pre or post election pacts but the instruments must be deposited to the Registrar of political parties in writing. Mudavadi until his defection to the little known United Democratic Forum (UDF) party was a member of ODM before severing his relations with the party’s hierarchy after claiming unfair ground in the party’s flag bearer nomaination rules.

A former central Kenya MP whose identity we cannot reveal noted that if Uhuru carries his ambition to the 2013 elections, then it would be very difficult to “transfer” the central Kenya votes to another candidate like Mudavadi. Right now we can only sit back and stare at the political developments. I can tell you that polticians and the business guys are finding it hard to plan in the name of vouching between the two. The confusion is glaring and don’t be surprised if the voter turnout in central Kenya is nothing above 40 percent,” he says.

But as the confusion continues another twist to the Mudavadi presidency has come into sight. The wrangling over leadership positions within UDF and especially the failure by the DPM to have an overriding influence in the party just like his colleagues – calling the shots in the outfits, has thrown him back to the drawing board.

Fears among the Mudavadi supporters are rife that their man could be under use, to sweep the dirt of the powerful individuals within the Kibaki administration keen to retain the power of influence if Mudavadi presidential bid was heavily questioned by both friend and foe when he chose a party he did not have any influence over its management and control. His uncalculated proposition to front his right hand man Dan Ameryo as Secretary General has hit brick wall to his own chagrin.

“It was prearranged before we joined UDF that Abraham Limo – the Secretary General steps down in favor of Mudavadi choice. What we are now witnessing is power intrigues with some people keen to maintain the status quo. This is not the agreement we had,” says Bukachi.